The euphoria from the spontaneously organized through Face book in Egypt so called revolution is slowly passing away. The necessity of solving the problems aggravated during the years and impossible to further postpone is setting in. The analysis of the events during and after the revolution indicates that the pouring of the demonstrators into the streets of the big Egyptian cities and their concentrating in Tahrir Square in the capital Cairo were an inevitable and logic outcome of the accumulated discontent. The crowd saw the solution in the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, who had perceived himself as a President for life, and exulted by its courage to revolt against the untouchable and hated regime.
After the Parliament was dissolved /Feb. 13/ and the constitution was suspended the country entered a period of preparation for extraordinary presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in the autumn of this year. According to the Minister of Tourism Mr. Mounir Fakhri Abdel Nour, former General Secretary of the opposition “Al Wafd” party, the required constitutional amendments are already enacted. Egypt set off on the path to reforms without chaos despite the attempts at provocations to push the country in this direction by criminal gangs, escaped prisoners, thieves and marauders. The economy did not sustain serious losses and remained comparatively unaffected. The government headed by the Prime Minister Mr. Essam Sharaf demonstrated willingness and consistency in accomplishing decisive reforms. The bank accounts of Mubarak family, of the ministers from the former cabinet, of businessmen were frozen. A list of 48 persons, including 23 former ministers and their families, who were to be investigated and who were prohibited to leave Egypt was drawn up. The civil unrest was banned and the syndicate movements were called to stop the strikes enabling the economy to sooner recover. On February 15th was formed a Committee of legal experts with the purpose to implement the changes in the Constitution. The Constitutional Committee headed by the prominent judge and historian Mr. Tareq al-Beshri did not include a representative of the Coptic community but with the participation of a representative of the banned “Muslim Brotherhood” organization. It was planned to be voted the constitutional amendments to 11 articles in a referendum on 19th of March 2011. The intention to raise the salaries of the government employees by 15% from April 1st, 2011 as well as the pension contributions was announced.
In its foreign policy the government maintains continuity and consistency. The new Foreign Minister Mr. Nabil Abdullah el-Araby who replaced Mr. Ahmed Abul Gheit on this post considers that the foreign policy priorities including the attitude to the peace with Israel and the coalition relations with the US will remain but following the principle of higher requirements and less altruism. The efforts to retain the leading regional and international roles of Egypt will continue.
Before the elections on the agenda now is to clarify the political space and to determine the political participants in it – the parties, movements and individuals. Only in this way successful and fair elections can be guaranteed. The ruling until now “National Democratic Party” will retain its leading position in terms of members, organizational and financial capacity. The new general secretary and leader of the political committee /headed previously by Mr. Mubarak’s son Mr. Gamal Mubarak/ was named the veteran member Hossam Badrawi but he resigned days later, saying Egypt needed new parties. Secretary General of Egypt's National Democratic Party now is Mohammed Ragab. The banned for more than 50 years “Muslim Brotherhood” remains with considerable chances for leadership in the oppositional political space. This organization has a very well developed party structure and its sympathizers and members are from all walks of life but mainly from among the doctors, the well-off intellectuals and the army. Most probably restructuring and regrouping will take places, or probably already begun, among the remaining opposition parties and movements –“Al Wafd”, the “Kefaya” movement, the left-wing “Al Tagammo”, National Association for Change, April 6 Youth movement etc.
With the stipulation that the estimates of the chances of the eventual candidates are made prior the results of the political restructuring and the constitutional changes the following prognoses could be made.
Mr. Amr Moussa /74/ - The Secretary General of the Arab League and former Foreign Minister /1991-2001/ commands the best chances. Не Is popular within Egypt, especially with his criticism of the USA and Israel. He is regarded a dissident as his posting in the Arab League is considered as an attempt of the rulers of the country to eliminate him from the internal politics in Egypt.
Mohamed el-Baradei – the leader of the opposition from the protests at the Tahrir Square and former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency declared his intentions to participate in the presidential campaign.
Other candidates but with smaller chances of success are the Minister of Defence Field Marshall Tantaui /75 years/ and the Chief of Staff of the armed forces General Sammy Anan.
Gen. Omar Suleiman /76/ - born in Qena in Upper Egypt, he joined the army in 1954 and received military training in the former Soviet Union. He collects many negativism of the public because of considering him as Mubarak II.
To get the full analysis, please contact