With a perfect CIA operation without the knowledge of ISI and the Pakistani government terrorist number one was killed in a small military town close to Islamabad.
This justifies the ten- year long policy of the Afghanistan government concerning the genesis and the geographic direction of the terrorism. The strong pressure exercised by the US and the international community on Pakistan produced an opposite effect as the Pakistani Parliament by a resolution discussing the CIA operation declared the operation an aggression and violation of sovereignty on the part of USA.
ISI refused co-operation with CIA and intended to close the supply route via Chaman to NATO convoys. After intensive diplomatic shuttles between Washington, Islamabad and Kabul the pressure over Pakistan has considerably diminished.
Pakistan has taken a “wait-and-see position” as it needs time for its dual policy – although the President Karsai is on official visit in Pakistan the Taliban violent actions mark a culminating point.
The selective killings of the elite of the armed winged of the Northern Alliance like the generals Daoud Daoud, Saidheli, Shah Jahan Noori etc. by the Taliban discouraged the anti-Taliban thinking in society. The visit of the Pakistani Prime Minister to Peking and the declaration of the Chinese government that “for the creation of a regional balance against India we will always have Pakistan by our side” additionally aggravates the situation. China relies on Pakistan too to receive its assistance, if such a need arises, in eventual disturbances in the Muslim autonomy of Xinjiang a territory crossed by major energy routes. The Karsai government which is convinced that after the withdrawal of NATO troops it will have the ground sleeping under its feet in order to insure its future reaches out a hand to Pakistan. The hanging of the former President Nadjibula is a striking example how cruel ISI can be against those who have revolted against them. Obviously the peace in Afghanistan is possible only with the conclusive role of Pakistan in the process of reconciliation with the Taliban serving also as a firm guarantee against the unfounded Pakistani apprehension of Indian influence in Afghanistan.
The President Obama’s statement that a political agreement is sought through the military balance so that Afghanistan may not again turn into a threat to the US is thought-provoking and confirms the necessity of enforced military-political reformation with an international recognition. Otherwise the Taliban who denounce the democratic values and the right to vote and consider themselves as chosen by Allah are determined to conquer the whole of Afghanistan receiving the full support of Pakistan in this their mission.
An eventual Sunni-theological emirate of the Taliban will affect the Muslim communities in the Russian Federation and will be a thorn in the side of the Shiite ayatollahs in Iran having its influence on the Kashmir as well.
The US eventual distancing away from these problems which will simultaneously lead to oppression in multiethnic Afghanistan will also force their return within a decade.
The peace is reversible. Only the permanent presence is the remedy.
Dr. M. Salem
12 June 2011